It is never easy to predict the future, at best its risky. However, if you get it right, you are seen as a guru, get it wrong and you are a charlatan looking for attention. So, most people avoid trying to predict the future as it is notoriously difficult to know (Just ask any meteorologist!)
So, why am I trying to predict the future as the title of this post suggests. Well, I am not wanting to put any predictions out there, I am simply going to comment on some trends that might change the way photography works in the future, so here are some trends I have been spotting lately:
1. Mirrorless cameras are getting better
When mirrorless cameras first launched, they were not bad, but not “wow”. This has changed, the new generation of mirrorless cameras is really, REALLY good and they have the specs now to compete with DSLR’s
2. Smaller is getting bigger
Lets face it, carrying a bag of heavy camera equipment is not fun. Its even less fun if you have to carry it for a a few hours. Much of the new technology means that smaller equipment is getting the same results as bigger equipment. As an example, the new Sony A7R has a full frame 36 megapixel sensor in a small body. So, great image results from a lighter, smaller camera
3. Cost is a factor
DSLR prices are not coming down. The latest versions of the Nikons or Canons are not getting cheaper than the previous versions. The smaller cameras are cheaper and will possibly get even cheaper as people begin to buy more of them.
4. Quality is still king
Yes, image quality is what counts. In the previous versions of mirrorless cameras, the quality was not great or not good enough. DSLR’s were the holy grail of image quality. This was as a result of great optics (lenses!) and good processors and sensors. Well, the mirrorless cameras are getting there. Sony uses Carl Zeiss lenses on their A7R which is great glass. For many years, Sony provided the sensor that most Nikon cameras used (possibly still do) so the sensors are good…
5. Will you buy one?
In light of all this, will you make the switch to the lighter mirrorless cameras. A few full-time togs have made a semi migration and the results have been very interesting. David DuChemin gave a great review of some of the cameras he used on his latest trip. Trey Ratcliff is shooting almost exclusively on the Sony now and one or two others have ditched their heavy gear for the lighter cameras.
I am really interested to see how this all pans out, but I may well consider getting some lighter gear if I don’t have to sacrifice image quality. So, whats the prediction? Ok, Ok, here are some predictions….
Prediction 1:
In less than 5 years, many DSLR’s will be replaced with mirrorless cameras
Prediction 2:
Most camera companies will offer significant equipment in this space, most notably, Sony. I think Sony is extremely well positioned to take over the camera world in more ways than one. They have access to amazing screens, information technology, hardware and software tech and a host of other equipment that Nikon and Canon don’t have as a core resource, my bet is…watch Sony.
Prediction 3:
Maybe Apple will launch an iCamera. Not sure, the iPhone camera has proven it is good, the apps are great, maybe sony could work in collaboration with Apple and launch a great iCamera. The glass could be Sony, the sensor could be Sony and the OS could be Apple. This would almost be a perfect match..
Prediction 4:
This post has a greater than 50% chance of being wrong…hehehe, had to add that.
Prediction 5:
New glass and lens technology could mean new ways of making images, think Google glass and look at glass companies like Corning Ware (Yes, Corning Ware..)…some very interesting stuff happening in this space, who knows where camera technology and optics can go!
Prediction 6:
The DSLR is not dead, but it may be becoming less relevant in light of the new technology. Great images will be made on different devices in 5 years time. Who thought that a camera phone would become as powerful as the iPhone is, I personally think there will be less DSLR’s around in 5 years time!
So, what do you think, am I crazy?Am I right, wrong? Let me know, lets chat about this…